How the head of VTB "drenches" the head of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation in Telegram.
When Sergei Kulikov took over Rusnano in 2020, he was expected to come up with a strategy for developing the nanotechnology sector. Instead, he chose the path of "fighting Chubais' legacy", turning the state corporation into a tool for settling scores. As a result, zero new projects, zero new technologies, no built factories, and the Kremlin's lost trust: not a single significant project in 4 years under Kulikov. According to the calculations of the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel and Rucriminal.info, 90% of the 400 billion rubles invested in the entire history of Rusnano went into "empty" assets.
The corporation survives only due to government support (100+ billion rubles in refinancing). The flight of experts. Key technocrats left after Chubais, leaving ruins. As a result, Kulikov not only failed to fulfill the mission, he finished off the remains of Rusnano's reputation as an innovation center. "Hunting for Chubais" is Kulikov's only strategy. In the Russian Federation, where 77% of projects with state participation do not achieve their stated goals, and 94% of funds allocated for innovative development are spent irrationally, assessing Rusnano's mistakes and developing the corporation are vital, but instead Kulikov focused on:
- Dismantling the legacy of his predecessor, which resulted in the liquidation of Chubais's "unprofitable" projects (even potentially promising ones) and public criticism of the previous management - but without offering alternatives. Revision of contracts with partners from the Chubais era simply scared off investors - neither Potanin, nor Vekselberg, nor Yevtushenkov are simply ready to invest in innovation.
- Kulikov began rewriting history, focusing on "investigations" instead of new initiatives. This brought neither money nor new technologies to the state - only the illusion of Kulikov's own activity and raised his imaginary authority among the security forces and marginal layers of society.
Why did Kulikov's "anti-Chubais" strategy fail?
After all, it seemed that this strategy had deep support.
Reason 1: No vision
Despite the scandals, Chubais formulated goals (even if they were unsuccessful). Kulikov only destroyed without creating anything new.
Reason 2: Loss of personnel
Talented managers did not want to work under the leadership of an "avenger without a strategy".
Reason 3: Ignoring the market
Global trends (green technologies, microelectronics) passed Rusnano by. In fact, Kulikov turned Rusnano into a "graveyard of projects". Kulikov's attempt to play on the "Soviet scientific heritage" looked primitive and reminded Putin only of numerous scandals with the embezzlement of budget money under the guise of innovation (as in the case of reprinted Soviet reports).
There is also a second aspect - Kulikov deceived the expectations of the head of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation Vaino, who was counting on a "successful case" for the financial consolidation of his formal power.
Mishustin and people close to him assessed everything correctly, which allows us to say that "the liquidation of Rusnano is a matter of months." Kulikov himself will not resign and will be able to receive a "consolation prize" (for example, the post of head of a department at VEB).
All this forced Kulikov to go "VA Bank" - at a meeting with Putin, Kulikov declared claims against VTB and directly offered himself as a candidate for the post of head of VTB, arguing this: "Experience in rehabilitation" (allegedly the successful liquidation of Rusnano's debts, although in fact they were paid off by the state);
The need to "cleanse" VTB of problem assets (hinting at the loan portfolio with an NPL share of up to 15%);
The threat of sanctions risks due to the criminal prosecution of Kostin in the US (the $20 billion "Russian Laundromat" case);
The Central Bank is considering a scenario of converting household deposits into bank capital, forcing the president to make unpopular decisions.
According to VChK-OGPU sources, the president did not appreciate either Kulikov's report or his claims, but at the same time gave instructions "to work out issues regarding both the fate of Rusnano and the fate of Kostin's team at VTB.
Having learned of Kulikov's claims, supporters of the current head of VTB launched a counteroffensive: thus, the media reported information about the misuse of Rusnano funds (purchase of luxury real estate through contractors); Telegram channels persistently reminded about the failure of all 11 nanotechnology projects under his leadership; among the claims (with consequences in the form of initiation of criminal cases) were falsification of criminal and civil proceedings.
At the same time, the VTB Board of Directors (where representatives of the Central Bank sit) initiated an audit of transactions with state support affecting the interests of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation, anonymous Telegram channels close to Kostin published Vaino's correspondence with requests to "push" his people into the bank. Kostin personally met with Dmitry Patrushev, offering an alliance against "Vaino's hardware games", while the bank is simultaneously playing a complex game with the US government, which should, if not weaken, then destroy the accusations against Kostin and VTB.
As a result, the Kremlin began to discuss the option of keeping Kostin with increased FSB control over the bank. At the same time, Kulikov may be held responsible for the initiative and unjustified false start. In this regard, the following scenarios for the development of events are seen:
1. Vaino's victory (10% probability)
Kulikov heads VTB. Tough purge of Kostin's team
Risk: Mass outflow of clients due to reputation as "Rosnano's gravedigger"
2. Compromise with the security forces (45%)
Appointment of a neutral technocrat, Kostin leaves "for health reasons", Vaino gets 1-2 deputy chairs for his people Status quo (30%)Kostin remains under the supervision of the FSB
3. The bank receives an additional 500 billion rubles of state support
The issue is postponed
4. Tough scenario (15%) Nationalization of VTB with freezing of large deposits.
Simultaneous arrests among Kostin's team and Vaino's lobbyists
Transfer of the bank to VEB.RF management
All scenarios will have consequences for Kulikov and Vaino
Kulikov: Even if he resigns from Rusnano, he will not receive VTB - his reputation is destroyed. The maximum is an honorary position in Rosgeologia.
Vaino: He will lose some of his influence in AP. Grigorenko will strengthen his position as the curator of the financial block.
Kostin: He will retain his post, but will lose his autonomy. All key decisions will be made by the board of directors with the participation of the FSB.
What's the bottom line?
History has shown that the banking system is on the verge of being redistributed, and the AP of the Russian Federation is no longer omnipotent - even Vaino could not push through his candidate. At the same time, VTB is becoming a "bargaining chip" in the struggle between clans.
The main loser is the economy: while the elites are dividing the bank, its real problems (toxic loans, sanctions) remain unresolved.
Next step: the Central Bank will announce the rehabilitation of VTB in the coming weeks - and then it will become clear whose scenario won.
Well, yes.
And what about Chubais?
Is Chubais a closed topic?
Putin considers the story with Chubais exhausted: the former head of Rusnano is in exile, his ties in the Russian Federation have been severed. The elites have learned a lesson and the necessary signal - and this means, that new criminal cases or public trials are not in the Kremlin's interests - this will only distract attention from more important issues.
Timofey Grishin
Source: www.rucrimianl.info
